NFL training camps officially begin for a number of teams next week. That means the NFL season is slowly getting closer and the sportsbooks are getting ready by unleashing their NFL props and futures. That includes the NFL win total props, which are now available for all 32 teams.
Figuring out which teams will improve on last year’s win totals and which will decline isn’t always easy. For example, last season four teams won 13 games – the Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, Minnesota Vikings and New England Patriots. The season before the Patriots were even better with 14 wins, Pittsburgh had 11, and Minnesota and Philadelphia weren’t event close with eight wins and seven wins, respectively.
The highest over/under win total this season is going to New England at 11. The oddsmakers expect them to go Over that total with the Over favored at -150. The Patriots have won 12 games or more in eight straight seasons. Getting six games against the Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills and New York Jets will probably help them extend that streak to nine.
After New England on the odds list are Pittsburgh and Philadelphia with win totals of 10.5. For the Eagles the Under is a slight favorite at -120 and for Pittsburgh the Under is a -130 favorite. The Steelers have gone Over 10.5 wins in three of their last four seasons, while the Eagles won 13 games last season after back-to-back 7-9 seasons.
Vikings, Rams interesting cases on 2018 NFL win totals
The Vikings and Rams are both interesting cases, as they were both handed totals of 10 wins. Not surprisingly the Over is favored for Minnesota at -130. Adding Kirk Cousins and a healthy Dalvin Cook to a team that won 13 games will do that. However, for the Rams the Under is actually favored at -125. Los Angeles won 11 games last season and despite adding Brandin Cooks and Ndamukong Suh the oddmakers are favoring them to win fewer games.
Looking through the rest of the teams on the win total props list, three standouts include the Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears and Cleveland Browns.
Last season the Bills went 9-7 to make the playoffs for the first time in nearly two decades. The oddsmakers don’t expect a repeat of that success this season after setting the Bills’ win total at 6.5 and making the Under a sizable favorite at -165. Having AJ McCarron, Josh Allen and Nathan Peterman battling for the starting QB job is likely the main reason for that, since all three would be the backup on almost every other team in the league.
The Bears won only five games last season, but the oddsmakers must be expecting a revival in Chicago after listing their win total at 6.5 and making the Over a -160 favorite. Can Mitch Trubisky really lead the Bears to seven wins?
And then there’s the Browns who last year didn’t win a single game. The oddsmakers are expecting much better things from their retooled roster after setting their win total at 5.5 and making the Over the favorite at -140. Cleveland has won only four games in the last three seasons combined. Can the additions of Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry and Carlos Hyde get them to six wins this season?