If you’re betting on the NFL MVP odds for the season ahead and you’re not betting on at least one quarterback, you’re doing it wrong. It’s popular opinion that the quarterback is the most important player on any football team so it should come as no surprise that the position has totally dominated the MVP discussion since the inception of the award.
In total, 61 players have been named NFL MVP since the award was created in 1957. If that math seems wrong that’s because there have been co-MVP award winners twice. Out of those 61 award winners 40 of them have been quarterbacks. For the mathematically challenged that’s just over 65 percent. When a QB did not win it has gone to a running back 18 times, a defensive player twice and once, for some reason, it went to a kicker.
Last season for the eighth time in the last nine years a quarterback won after the Carolina Panthers’ Cam Newton was named MVP. Right now on the latest MVP odds he’s a +800 underdog to repeat. The last back-to-back winner was Peyton Manning in 2008-09, and including Manning there have only been five back-to-back winners.
The favorite is Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers at +425. Rodgers already has two MVP trophies on his mantle, having previously won in 2014 and 2011. Leading a Packers squad that is considered to be a Super Bowl contender and should boast one of the top offenses with Jordy Nelson returning puts Rodgers in a great position to win games and put up big numbers.
Following Rodgers on the NFL MVP odds is Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger at +750. Big Ben has never won the MVP award, but he’s a legitimate threat this season if he can stay healthy. Roethlisberger has arguably the best receiver in the league, Antonio Brown, catching his passes and with running back Le’Veon Bell heading for a suspension of unknown length it will be up to Roethlisberger to carry the Steelers offense early on.
Rounding out the Top 5 on the MVP odds are Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson, who shares +800 odds with Newton, and New England Patriots QB Tom Brady at +1000. Brady, who won the MVP in 2007 and 2010, delivers a predicament for bettors due to his four-game suspension. Does the suspension take him out of the running, or does it give him a better shot at the award if the Patriots struggle without him and he completely rights the ship when he returns?
If you’re looking for the first non-quarterback on the list it’s Houston Texans linebacker J.J. Watt at +2500. If he was to win the MVP he’d be the first defensive player since Lawrence Taylor in 1986.
The top running backs on the list are the Minnesota Vikings’ Adrian Peterson at +3300 and the Los Angeles Rams’ Todd Gurley at +5000. Peterson was the last non-quarterback to win the MVP in 2012.