With four weeks remaining in the NFL’s regular season the AFC Wild Card picture is far from clear. Heading into Week 14 six teams remain in the hunt for the second and final Wild Card, all deadlocked at 7-5 in the standings.
The logjam in the standings leaves Miami, Baltimore, Kansas City and Pittsburgh with Super Bowl odds of 50/1, followed by Cleveland at 100/1, and Buffalo at 200/1 in futures betting the sportsbooks.
The 7-5 Miami Dolphins currently control the second AFC Wild Card on the strength of tiebreakers, and play host to Baltimore on Sunday as three-point favorites in a game certain to shake up the standings and the odds.
Miami has come to life following a sluggish start, winning five of their last seven, going 6-2 ATS, and have been dominant at home in two recent wins.
The Ravens are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four meetings with Miami, but have struggled in recent weeks, going 2-3 SU and ATS in their last five, and are winless in their last three against Wild Card rivals.
With losing records against AFC North and conference rivals, a SU loss will certainly diminish the Ravens’ playoff hopes and send their Super Bowl odds plummeting. But with games against Jacksonville, Houston and Cleveland remaining, not all hope would be lost.
A SU win for Miami solidifies their position as the second Wild Card, and will likely give a boost to their futures odds. But with matchups remaining against division rivals New England and the New York Jets, the Dolphins’ future is far from certain.
The 7-5 Pittsburgh Steelers can boost their Super Bowl odds with a win this weekend, in the first of two late-season matchups with the AFC North-leading Cincinnati Bengals. Cincy enters the contest with an 8-3-1 record and solid 28/1 odds in Super Bowl betting, and are pegged as 3.5-point favorites over the struggling Steelers.
A Pittsburgh win would improve their tiebreaker situation, but with a Week 16 date against the 7-5 Chiefs, expectations and betting odds will remain tempered. A Steelers loss, especially if combined with a Kansas City win in their matchup with Arizona, would be crushing for both Pittsburgh’s playoff and betting prospects.
The 7-5 Chiefs travel to Arizona as one-point underdogs in what promises to be a low-scoring matchup with the 9-3 Cardinals. Both teams are enduring two-game losing streaks while struggling to produce offense.
A Chiefs win combined with a Miami loss moves them into the second Wild Card, at least temporarily. However, as with their rivals in the AFC North, a loss would be devastating to Kansas City’s odds, forcing them to post SU wins over Pittsburgh and San Diego in their final two regular season games to have any chance at a playoff spot.
While Cleveland will have their hands full against Indianapolis, it is the Bills that have the toughest road to a playoff spot. Following their Week 14 matchup with the AFC West-leading Denver Broncos, the Bills must face top Super Bowl picks New England and Green Bay in two of their last three games; matchups which few bettors will give Buffalo much chance of winning.