The last five Super Bowl champions have at least one key characteristic in common. None of them were among the top-five betting favorites the next year.
This year’s Baltimore Ravens and the 2010 Green Bay Packers were the closest with 14/1 odds. The 2011 New York Giants, 2009 New Orleans Saints and 2008 Pittsburgh Steelers all were posted at 25/1 seven months before the start of the season in early February.
If bettors and books are correct, then next year’s Super Bowl, scheduled for February 2 2014 at Metlife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J., will see either the Broncos or 49ers lift the NFL championship trophy. Both Peyton Manning’s Broncos and Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers have moved to 5/1 in a consensus of different online sportsbooks. Some books are adjusting their numbers daily during the free agency period. Others are taking a more cautious wait-and-see approach until after the draft.
Hot Commodities
Bettors looking ahead to Super Bowl XLVIII are pouring money on the Seahawks and Redskins.
The Seahawks opened at 12/1 to win the Super Bowl, but have been bet down to 6/1. Bettors obviously believe in QB Russell Wilson and for what it is worth, RG3’s doctors are describing his rehab efforts and recovery as superhuman. That description and ensuing medical update has helped bring in a lot of money on the Redskins who opened at 25/1 and dropped to 18/1.
Five other teams fall into the magical 12/1 to 25/1 range; Steelers and Ravens at 14/1, Falcons and Saints at 16/1 and the Giants at 20/1.
Other teams drawing sharp action are longshots Cleveland (100/1 to 75/1) and Oakland (100/1 to 60/1).
San Francisco Treat
Bettors appreciate that the 49er’s roster will return virtually intact. That includes Colin Kaepernick, who should only get better with a full offseason under his belt, as the team’s starting quarterback.
One word of advice before you put your nest egg on San Francisco; the last time that a team lost the Super Bowl and made it back the following season was in 1994. It was the Buffalo Bills making their fourth trip after losing the previous three.
Repeat Unlikely
Baltimore’s journey to the title was a thing of beauty, but their chances at a repeat are slim at best. Some serious cap issues make this team a prime candidate to take a significant step backwards next season, especially with Joe “Fat and Sassy” Flacco throwing the ball with that thick wallet in his back pocket.
The two likely candidates to come out of the AFC remain Denver and the New England Patriots, who are hoping to end a seven-season SB drought. The Broncos’ chances will depend on how much Peyton has left in the tank.
On the NFC side, the 49ers, Seahawks and Packers are getting the most financial love, but Green Bay fans beware. The loss of players like Greg Jennings and Charles Woodson will help them get younger, but not necessarily better.