With three weeks to go in the regular season, two teams — the Steelers and Eagles — have already clinched their respective division crowns, while the Patriots, 3-point favorites at Pittsburgh, and Vikings, 11-point favorites vs Cincinnati, can lock up division titles with wins this weekend. In the other four divisions, one game or head-to-head tiebreakers are all that separate first from second place.
Leading the AFC South by one game over Tennessee, the Jacksonville Jaguars at -300 have the best odds to win their division. Not only do the Titans, +200, have to play at San Francisco before back-to-back home games against the Rams and Jaguars to finish out the season, but Marcus Mariota is now dealing with a sprained knee. Jacksonville’s league-best defense hosts a T.J. Yates-led Texans offense this weekend, before road trips to San Francisco and Nashville to finish out the season.
The Seahawks trail the Rams by one game in the NFC West, but a Seattle win over Los Angeles on Sunday would pull both teams even at 9-5. Pete Carroll’s crew would own the head-to-head tiebreaker with a season sweep of their divisional rival. Seattle would then go on to play Dallas and Arizona, while the Rams travel to Tennessee before hosting the Niners in Week 17. For now, the Rams are kings of the West at -170 to win the division, while the Seahawks at +130 hold value.
A head-to-head Week 15 matchup will also determine who owns sole possession of first place in the AFC West. Kansas City beat the Chargers 24-10 in Los Angeles during their 5-0 start to the season. However, both teams are now 7-6 and a Chargers’ win at Arrowhead would hand first place over to a team that started 0-4 out of the gate. With their decisive win over the Raiders last weekend, the Chiefs maintain their edge on the oddsboard at -125 to win the West, but Philip Rivers and company are breathing down their neck at +110. At 6-7, Oakland, once +1000 to win the Super Bowl, is now +1600 to win its division.
At +450, the Falcons are a long shot to catch either the Saints or Panthers, but with their final three games coming against NFC South opponents, Atlanta is a fascinating flier. The Falcons are 1-0 against the Saints, who currently own the first-place tiebreak over the Panthers. Atlanta travels to New Orleans for Week 16.
The Saints, who currently control their own destiny, are the favorites to clinch the NFC South at -190. They’ll host the Jets and Falcons before traveling to Tampa Bay for Week 17. Aside from losing both games to New Orleans this season, the Panthers’ path to a division crown became a little trickier with Aaron Rodgers set to start against them this weekend. They also have to travel to Atlanta for Week 17 in a game that should impact playoff seeding. The Panthers are +275 to win the NFC South.