The Super Bowl betting matchup that started the Tom Brady and Bill Belichick Super Bowl era returns as the New England Patriots will face the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl 53.

It was 17 years ago when New England edged the then St. Louis Rams 20-17 in Super Bowl 36 as a 14-point underdog. Since then, Brady and Belichick have teamed up to win five Super Bowls and this will be their ninth appearance in the game.

The line for Super Bowl 53 opened with the Patriots listed as a 1.5-point favorite. The spread has steadily grown since the early money hit the books, and right now at BetOnline Sportsbook you’ll find New England listed as a 3-point favorite.

And not surprisingly, Brady is a huge favorite on the Super Bowl MVP odds menu at +125.

What Stat has Guaranteed a Winning Super Bowl bet?

Call this silly if you will, but when it happens 8 times in a row, there must be something to it. Or maybe not?

What is the one outcome that has guaranteed Super Bowl bettors know which way to lean when the Patriots are in Super Bowl? It’s the coin toss.

In the five Super Bowls where the Patriots have lost the coin toss, they have won the game. In the three Super Bowls where the Patriots have won the coin toss, they have lost the game. So it seems pretty simple: watch the coin toss, have your betting account open and ready and then go make your bet before kickoff!

Super Bowl 53 Betting – Matchup Stats

Both the Rams and the Patriots had to get through overtime in the conference championships to advance to the Super Bowl. New England defeated the Kansas City Chiefs 37-31 as a 3-point underdog after easily marching down field in the extra frame.

The Rams edged the New Orleans Saints 26-23 as a 4-point underdog behind Greg Zuerlein’s 57-yard field goal in OT.

The Rams were listed as an underdog just once all season (in the NFC title game at New Orleans). Even with last week’s win the Rams record as an underdog isn’t very promising, as they are 3-12 straight up and 3-11-1 against the spread in their last 15. But most of those losses were before this powerful version of the Rams.

New England is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight playoff games. As a playoff favorite, the Patriots are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven. In their last seven Super Bowl appearances however, the Patriots are just 2-5 ATS. And realistically (sorry Pats lovers), they could be 0-7 ATS, after stealing wins against Seattle and Atlanta when they really should have lost.

Being listed as the Super Bowl underdog may not be bad for the Rams. In the last seven Super Bowls, the underdog is 6-1 SU. Of course, the only favorite to win in that span is the Patriots, who won 34-28 against the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl 51 as a 3-point favorite.

Including their Super Bowl 36 matchup the Patriots have defeated the Rams in five straight, while going 4-1 ATS. In the last 10 matchups between the Rams and Patriots, the favorite is 7-3 SU.

Super Bowl 53 Prediction

Early betting money was pouring in on the Patriots and the point spread had already moved to -3. It could go further. This is a classic battle of youth vs experience, both in coaching and with QBs. Brady and Bill Belichick beat a young stud QB in the AFC title game, besting Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Goff and Sean McVay beat a wily veteran in the NFC title game, besting Drew Brees and the Saints.

If Aaron Donald can blow into the backfield enough to rattle Brady early, this could get interesting. But you have to think Belichick will be prepared for that. It’s tough to bet against the Patriots, even at -3.

Pick – Patriots