Oh, you rookie football bettors, honestly believing that handicapping the Super Bowl 54 coin toss is guess work, a simple 50-50 proposition.

Such a novice attitude when this bet merits the careful contemplation of football academia and serious study of coin toss historians.

There are obvious patterns. There are unmistakable trends. There are ways you can turn this misleading embodiment of how to settle a spat in an objective, non-partisan fashion into a one-sided, money-making event this Sunday.

[ Ad: See the latest Super Bowl coin toss props and awesome bonus specials at Bovada

Sure, you can look at recent streaks where tails enjoys a 5-1 hot hand. Ditto the NFC’s 5-1 streak over the same period. But that’s pretty amateur stuff. The real Vegas professionals invest according to BetOnSuperBowl.com’s exhaustive Super Bowl coin toss study.

Win the coin toss, lose the game

Watch video of recent Super Bowls past and you see team captains pumped up when they win the coin toss. But those same captains are bummed out a few hours later when their team loses. This has happened in the past six Super Bowls.

Since this is pretty much guaranteed to happen again, watch Super Bowl coin toss props such as ‘Will the team that wins the coin toss also win the game’ and quickly get your money down on ‘No.’

Game Toss Win Game Win
SB49 Seahawks Patriots
SB50 Panthers Broncos
SB51 Falcons Patriots
SB52 Patriots Eagles
SB53 Rams Patriots
SB54 49ers Chiefs

NFC dominates the coin toss

While the recent history is impressive (5-1 in the past six games), coin toss naysayers who feel the AFC stands a fair shot are proven foolish over the longer term. Since Super Bowl 32, the NFC has won 19 of the 22 coin tosses, including a clearly crooked stretch of 14 straight wins.

Note, the NFC didn’t call every game right, sometimes the AFC called it wrong. But you get the idea. Clearly not a fair fight when the team captains gather to decide who gets the ball first.

Identical six-game pattern of ‘Tails, Tails, Tails, Tails, Heads, Tails’

Since Super Bowl 32, this pattern has repeated itself three times. You think that’s a fluke? Of course not, it’s the undiscovered Deflategate of Super Bowl coin tosses.

Bettors have been able to make a killing off this trend. However, the problem for Super Bowl 54 bettors is that we are right at the end of this six-game sequence and history doesn’t tell us whether heads or tails comes next.

After the pattern ended in Super Bowl 37, the next bowl was tails. After the pattern ended at Super Bowl 42, the next bowl was heads. We predict tails will come up and we’ll start the next pattern (which you can profit from for the next six Super Bowls).

It’s also what sportsbook manager Adam Burns hopes will happen, because more action for Super Bowl 54 is on heads, again.

“Coin toss is always a staple prop bet that people seem to love betting and always takes so much money, and it seems we always end up needing Tails for some reason,” said Adam Burns, from online shop Betonline.ag. “That seems to be the trend again heading towards Sunday, with 55% on Heads.”

SB32 Tails
SB33 Tails
SB34 Tails
SB35 Tails
SB36 Heads
SB37 Tails
SB38 Tails
SB39 Tails
SB40 Tails
SB41 Heads
SB42 Tails
SB43 Heads
SB48 Tails
SB49 Tails
SB50 Tails
SB51 Tails
SB52 Heads
5SB3 Tails
SB54 Tails

Heads AFC wins, Tails NFC wins

Since Super 46, this pattern is a 100 per cent lock at 8-0. Heads, and the AFC will win the Super Bowl coin toss. Tails and its the NFC.

SB46 Heads Patriots
SB47 Heads Ravens
SB48 Tails Seahawks
SB49 Tails Seahawks
SB50 Tails Panthers
SB51 Tails Falcons
SB52 Heads Patriots
SB53 Tails Rams

Niners win coin toss, usually win game

San Francisco has won five Super Bowls. Four times, they won the coin toss. In Super Bowls 16, 19, 23 and 29, they won the toss. They lost the toss to Denver in Super Bowl 24. They also lost the toss in their Super Bowl 47 loss to Baltimore.

Kansas City has been to just one Super Bowl, but just so you know – they lost the Super Bowl 4 coin toss to the Vikings but won the game.

Patriots lose toss, win game: Patriots win toss, lose game

Yes, we are aware the New England Patriots are NOT in the Super Bowl for a pleasant change. But next time they are (hopefully not for many decades), here is the 100 per cent lock on how to bet that future game.

New England has famously been to eight Super Bowls in the past two decades, and they boast this 8-0 perfect trend. When New England wins the coin toss (three times), they lose the game. When New England loses the coin toss (five times), they win the game.

Game WL HT TossWin GameWin
31 Loss Heads Patriots Packers
38 Win Tails Panthers Patriots
39 Win Tails Eagles Patriots
46 Loss Heads Patriots Giants
49 Win Tails Seahawks Patriots
51 Win Tails Falcons Patriots
52 Loss Heads Patriots Eagles
53 Win Tails Rams Patriots

So, while you may decide to flip a coin to decide which of your buddies has to get up from the sofa to grab beer from the fridge Sunday, don’t trust that method for deciding how to bet the Super Bowl 54 coin toss prop.

Rely on history and hard data.