Super Bowl XLVIII will be the first to be held outdoors in a cold-weather location, with the game at MetLife Stadium outside of New York City. If you have been to the Northeast US in February, you know it’s likely going to be cold, windy and snowy.
The 2013 NFL regular season is on pace to be the highest-scoring in league history. Quarterbacks are treated like china dolls by the league, as defenders are barely allowed to touch them. Ditto wide receivers. You can’t hit those guys coming across the middle anywhere near the head. So receivers aren’t afraid to expose their bodies. It has led to an avalanche of points.
However, the expected weather conditions should make for a low-scoring Super Bowl, a total somewhere in the low 40s on the SuperBowl lines, and thus a rarity when considering Super Bowl betting tips: a defensive MVP for the game.
Just like defensive players almost never win the NFL regular-season MVP, they rarely win Super Bowl MVP. It has happened in seven Super Bowls: V – Dallas’ Chuck Howley; VII – Miami’s Jake Scott; XII – Dallas’ Randy White and Harvey Martin; XX – Chicago’s Richard Dent; XXX – Dallas’ Larry Brown; XXXV – Baltimore’s Ray Lewis; XXXVII – Tampa Bay’s Dexter Jackson.
The reason it’s rare is simple: voters of the award are swayed by points and gaudy statistics. That’s why a quarterback has won Super Bowl MVP in four straight years and six of the past seven. Any QB will be favored this year on the Super Bowl betting odds as well, whether it’s Denver’s Peyton Manning (SB XLI MVP), New England’s Tom Brady (MVP of SB XXXVI and XXXVIII), Seattle’s Russell Wilson or New Orleans’ Drew Brees (XLIV MVP).
For a defensive player to win, he surely would to have be on a unit that shuts down the other side. In addition, that player must have either multiple sacks, a few takeaways or, even better, a defensive score. Tampa Bay’s Jackson, the last defensive winner, had two interceptions.
So who might be some top defensive options to watch? Denver pass-rusher Von Miller is a difference-maker. He had 30 sacks in his first two seasons and forces many fumbles. His Broncos would likely be favored on the Super Bowl point spread against any NFC team. New England cornerback Aqib Talib (four INTs) would be put on the opposition’s top receiver, giving him a chance to make an impact.
Seattle has the best defense in the NFL and top cornerback in Richard Sherman. He’s very popular with his brash talk, and that helps with voters. Sherman has a TD this year and is tied for the NFL lead with six interceptions. He would be the favored Seahawk defender on the Super Bowl online betting MVP odds. San Francisco’s Ahmad Brooks leads his team in sacks and has an interception. Carolina’s Luke Kuechly is a Defensive Player of the Year favorite.
Those are a few well-known options to keep in mind when deciding how to bet on the Super Bowl odds for MVP.