Super Bowl XLVIII will be a very unique event as it will be the first Super Bowl played outdoors in a cold weather environment. That means that we can’t just blindly take the trends from previous seasons and apply them to this case because we don’t know just how much the elements will come into play on Sunday, February 2, 2014 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.
However, history does have a way of predicting the future. That being the case, let’s crunch some numbers from previous Super Bowls and see what kind of trends we can pull out to help us handicap the upcoming 48th edition:
Is There an Edge for One Conference Over the Other?
The NFC and AFC don’t really have any major, pronounced differences, which is why it’s not surprising to see that the Super Bowl hasn’t clearly favored one side or the other. If you’re looking back through the archives, those who bet on the Super Bowl should note that the NFC has a slight 25-22 advantage overall. That doesn’t really give us a trend to work with one way or another. The difference in conferences in the NFL is minor. It’s not like in baseball where one league favors hitting with a designated hitter and the other emphasizes pitching and small ball, and therefore, a matchup of the two is a contrast in styles.
All we can really gather here is that we have to evaluate each matchup individually and that neither conference has a traditional edge.
Just Pick the Winner
Everyone who bets the big game knows the Super Bowl odds as soon as they come out but maybe that’s not a number we really need to bother with. Why? Well, those looking for some good SuperBowl betting tips might want to take into account that the line hardly factors in the result. Since the first Super Bowl back in 1967, there have only been six times when the favorite won but did not cover the Super Bowl point spread (2009, 2005, 2004, 1996, 1989 and 1976).
In other words, just focus on picking the winner of the game. History shows us that the winner is more than likely to cover the spread.
How Do Favorites and Underdogs Do?
So maybe the Super Bowl lines are more important than the last paragraph indicated… but for different reasons. The team that is favored on the SuperBowl betting odds has won 33 out of 47 times while posting a record of 26-17-2 against the spread. Before you start laying money with the chalk, though, keep in mind that recently, the scales have tipped in favor of the underdogs. They have covered in five of the last six and nine of the last 12 Super Bowls.
The overall record of the favorites is misleading as they built up a huge lead, covering 21 of the first 29 championship games. Super Bowl online betting handicappers should recognize that the recent trend has clearly favored the dogs.